Evaluating social dangerousness for granting home detention: an empirical analysis of orders from the Varese Court in 2022

Abstract

This article presents an empirical analysis aimed at examining the impact of dangerousness indicators in the investigative activities conducted by the probation office of the Varese Court when evaluating applications for home detention. Through the examination of orders issued in 2022, the study explores the effect of dangerousness indicators on the assessment of requests for this alternative measure, categorizing and analyzing the issued measures along with the underlying rationales. The findings highlight that, despite the introduction of criminological criteria aimed at making prognostic judgments more objective and standardized, the probation office occasionally relied on discretionary factors within the examined sample. This analysis contributes to a deeper understanding of the complexities involved in applying legal principles related to social dangerousness and home detention, with significant implications for policies and practices within the criminal justice system.